Exactly 2 weeks ago, Turkiye held arguably the most important elections in its history. Hoping to mark its 100th year anniversary since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the Republic, it was indeed a symbolic one to usher the country into its second century. There was a lot at stake because a significant part of the population was hoping for a fresh start, a renewed sense of optimism, and a breath of fresh air from the suppressing regime which has been in power for over 2 decades.
It is no secret that Türkiye has had to face numerous challenges recently – political and religious radicalism, dark days of political instability, terrorism, the influx of illegal immigrants from war-prone neighboring Syria and Afghanistan, dubious stances in global geopolitics, tanking economy, etc. The list goes on. However, for the past 5 years, the major issue confronting the whole country has been the sinking state of the economy.
GLOBAL INFLATION FIGURES NOVEMBER 2022
Corruption, surging black markets, loss of purchasing power, high inflation, and decreased standard of living have been some rippling effects of bad economic policies by the Turkish government. The president, Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan, by and large, is at the realm of the decision-making process in the country has always had a lot on his plate to deal with.
Anyone who has been following the mainstream media outlets prior to the Turkish elections would think Erdoğan was going down by a landslide. Even the ‘credible’ polls tipped Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, his archrival and political antithesis, to win comfortably in the first round. Then came 14th May, D-Day when a part of the country and the Western media especially was thrown into a hysterical shock by the results.
On paper, it was as though all Turks were eagerly anticipating the elections to finally get rid of this authoritarian dictatorship spearheaded by the president, Erdoğan. However, that isn’t actually the case. Once again, it shows how reporting one-sided stories could be misleading.
Like him or not, Erdoğan has expertly cracked the Turkish political system code. He has artistically mastered the craft of the political game here. It’s no wonder he has won 10 consecutive elections since he launched his political career as the mayor of Istanbul in 1994. All he does is win.
Over the course of his political career, he has been able to garner a massive and loyal support base, mostly conservatives. To these people, he is more than a politician. He is often regarded as a symbol, a mega-star for that matter. He is the product of a legacy of resistance against the previous regime, one that castigated the conservatives, curtailing their inherent rights to religious freedom socially and publicly. For these people especially, he’s regarded as a liberator, and their deep love and commitment to him cannot be marred no matter how bad the economy or living conditions could be.
The darkest days of military coup and political unrest have been far left behind which is why to some people, he is regarded as Moses, the only one who they can rally behind to lead them to the Promised Land.
I have spent almost all my adult life here in Turkiye, mostly living in Kocaeli, a conservative province, not very far away from Istanbul. From my interactions with many people around here, it is very common especially for devout Erdoğan supporters to admit unfavorable living conditions, lamenting how bad the economy has plummetted over the past 3 years.
Regardless, all these issues play second fiddle while going to the polls. Most actually would rather vote for him because they don’t think there is anybody as competent and charismatic as Erdoğan who can lead their country. It’s simply unfathomable to see beyond him.
Why should we pay so much attention to what the majority thinks?” ~ Socrates
Their deep love, emotional attachment, and connection for Erdoğan reigns supreme. Moreover, they is also this hysterical fear that the other side (CHP) is plotting a nostalgic comeback, taking them back to previous times that repressed swathes of the population.
I have been living in Türkiye for over 6 years now. I have traveled far and wide in the country. From Istanbul, toured the Aegean region, been in the Anatolian region, and even went to as far as Gaziantep, a province just a stone's throw away from the Syrian border. I have interacted with scores of Turks while studying at university, traveling around, etc. Turkiye is a very complicated country. More like a fruit salad; it’s a blend of different people, and cultures, with different approaches to beliefs, political ideology, and religion.
Nevertheless, one thing is constant. Their sense of patriotism and loyalty to their country can never be questioned. It is absolute. Turks in general have incredible patriotic instincts. They might be segregated in political and religious approaches but when push comes to shove, their loyalty to country is supreme.
No wonder both political camps tap into this sense of nationalistic identity to incite a bonding of memory and shared experiences.
TURKISH DIASPORA
Also part of the reason why I believe Erdoğan would win this election again is due to the votes from abroad. Be that as it may, he is still popular and holds a special place in the hearts of many Turkish immigrants, especially the ones in Germany and France. (There are approximately 5 million Turks in both countries)
After WWII, scores of Turkish immigrants came to Germany during the 60s to help Germany rebuild after the devastating effects of the war. Most of these immigrants were from the bottom 10% of the population. Mostly illiterate, uneducated people went there to do the most menial, back-breaking, dirty, hard, and dangerous jobs for minimum wage.
They probably had not even seen a big city in Turkey before moving to Germany. And they were called Gasterbeiter ‘’guest workers’’ because the original idea was to let them work for two years and replace them with newcomers (that did not go as planned obviously because it is not feasible to train new factory workers every two years).
Even today, more than 65% of Turks living in Germany, one of the most liberal and progressive countries, tend to vote for Mr.Erdogan’s conservative and repressive AKP whereas only 45% of all Turks in Turkey vote for the AKP. The “guest workers” vote exactly like their rural relatives. This was especially highlighted from the first round of elections on 14th May 2023 when Erdoğan won a landslide in these regions even in the earthquake-devastated provinces that happened three months ago on 6th February 2023.
Even though the Turkish diaspora doesn’t move back to Turkey, because they obviously love and enjoy the social standards in Germany, France, Belgium, etc. However, their devoted love and commitment to Mr. Erdoğan make them vote for the conservative-Islamist government thereby making him a clear favorite to win in Sunday’s election.
Regardless of what happens on Sunday, the elected president would have a lot of work on their hands in unifying a segregated society. There is a dire need for a persona, someone who can bridge the divide in this fragmented society.
Long were days when the primary driving force in Turkish politics was the secular versus conservative divide. It’s a new country, rebranding itself as a commercial, political, and touristic hub to the world. As such, it is desperately in need of a revolutionary, one who would spearhead them to kickstart its 2nd Century.
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